In the 2024 U.S. election, a pattern emerged that challenges the narrative of a widespread rejection of the Democratic Party. While Kamala Harris lost the presidential race, and Democrats saw a significant setback in Senate control, a closer look at the numbers suggests a more complex story. Across key races, Democratic Senate candidates consistently outperformed Harris, signaling that voters may have been more critical of the Biden-Harris administration than the Democratic Party itself.
The Surprising Disconnect Between Presidential and Senate Races
Historically, a state’s Senate race aligns closely with its presidential race, as ticket-splitting—the act of voting for different parties on the same ballot—has diminished in today’s polarized political climate. Typically, voters stick with one party for both top positions. However, in 2024, a significant variation surfaced, with Democratic Senate candidates generally doing better than Harris, despite her loss to the Republican candidate.
This trend mirrors the 2020 election, where Republican Senate candidates outperformed then-President Donald Trump in swing states, suggesting Trump may have hindered the GOP’s Senate prospects. This year, it was Harris who seemed to hold back Democrats, as Senate candidates often surpassed her numbers, though sometimes not by enough to secure wins.
Examining the Key Races: Where Senate Candidates Surpassed Harris
The pattern is evident in several battleground states and even some traditionally red states. Here’s a breakdown of how key Democratic Senate candidates fared compared to Harris:
Nebraska: Independent Dan Osborn polled about 7 points higher than Harris, though he ultimately lost.
Montana: Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester outpaced Harris by around 7 points but was defeated.
Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown earned a 4-point edge over Harris, yet also lost his seat.
Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego was leading by about 4 points more than Harris, positioning him for a potential win.
Texas: Rep. Colin Allred achieved a 3-point advantage over Harris but couldn’t unseat Sen. Ted Cruz.
Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen led Harris by approximately 2 points in a race that remains too close to call.
Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin barely edged out Harris by less than 1 point yet succeeded in defeating Eric Hovde.
Even in states with less competitive races, such as Minnesota, New Mexico, New Jersey, and Virginia, Democratic Senate candidates saw higher support than Harris. One exception was Florida, where Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s performance mirrored Harris’s, and Maryland, where Angela Alsobrooks significantly underperformed Harris. However, Maryland’s outcome is partly explained by the strong candidacy of former Republican Governor Larry Hogan.
Decoding the Voter Sentiment: A Distinct Rejection of Biden-Harris?
The overperformance of Democratic Senate candidates raises critical questions about voter motivations. Were voters rejecting the entire Democratic agenda, or was their dissatisfaction directed primarily at Harris and her association with the Biden administration?
Some might argue that Harris’s challenges could stem from underlying issues of racism or sexism, though this is complicated by the fact that several Democratic candidates who outperformed Harris were themselves nonwhite or female. Alternatively, Harris may have been perceived as a weaker candidate in comparison to her Senate colleagues. However, polling suggested that President Joe Biden, had he remained in the race, would likely have fared worse. This points to the possibility that Harris was hindered less by her individual candidacy and more by her connection to the broader Biden administration’s struggles.
The Rise of the “Economy-First” Voters
In the face of economic uncertainty, some voters appear to be shifting allegiances, not out of newfound loyalty to the Republican Party but from economic nostalgia for the Trump administration. These are the voters who may think, “I don’t particularly like Republicans, but the economy was better under Trump.” Biden struggled to retain these voters, and Harris failed to win them back. The result: voters who rejected Harris at the top of the ticket but showed some preference for Democratic Senate candidates.
Broader Implications for the Democratic Party
The divergence in Harris’s and Senate candidates' results could be an indicator of an electorate grappling with economic unease rather than a straightforward repudiation of Democratic policies. This election underscores the challenge facing the Democratic Party as it seeks to distance itself from the perceived shortcomings of the Biden administration while still resonating with voters on the issues they care about most—chiefly the economy.
The 2024 election provides crucial insights into voter behavior. While Kamala Harris may not have secured the White House, her down-ballot counterparts' relative success suggests that the Democratic Party has room to recalibrate its approach in future elections. By addressing the concerns of “economy-first” voters, Democrats may find pathways to bridge the gap between presidential and Senate outcomes, forging a strategy that resonates across the political spectrum.