As the 2024 election heats up, the Democratic Party remains laser-focused on defeating Donald Trump. However, behind the scenes, different factions within the party are already preparing for another possible outcome: Kamala Harris losing the presidential race. This potential defeat would spark a fierce internal debate over what went wrong and how the party should respond.
Polling suggests that this race could be one of the closest in modern history, and Harris’ defeat is as plausible as her victory. Should she lose, Democrats will be forced to confront a harsh reality—one that may push the party further to the right.
A Divided Democratic Party
In the event of a Harris loss, moderates are poised to argue that the Biden administration’s excessive deference to left-wing interest groups led to the party’s failure. Meanwhile, some progressives believe that Harris’ defeat would be due to her close ties with big business, lack of a compelling vision for the country, and her involvement in controversial foreign policy decisions, including Israel’s actions in Gaza.
Traditionally, when a party loses an election, the faction that led it tends to lose influence. After Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016, the Democratic Party moved to the left, ceding space to some of her progressive critics. But in the case of a Harris defeat, the outcome of the internal battle is not as clear-cut.
No Single Faction to Blame
Unlike Clinton in 2016, neither the moderate nor the progressive wing can fully claim ownership of either the Biden administration or Harris’ campaign. Biden won the 2020 primary as a moderate candidate, yet his administration leaned on progressive economic policies. Harris herself has been straddling both worlds—running to the right of Biden’s 2020 platform by promoting a conservative border security bill and pledging bipartisan collaboration, yet having supported progressive initiatives like Medicare-for-all in the past.
This ambiguity means that, unlike 2016, no faction within the party can unequivocally lay the blame—or claim the right to set the path forward—in the event of a Harris loss. However, anyone who believes that her defeat would empower the party’s progressive wing is likely mistaken. On the contrary, a second Trump victory would probably push Democrats toward a more moderate stance.
Why the Democrats Would Move Right
Three main reasons suggest that a Harris loss would shift the Democrats to the center.
First, the conditions that allowed Democrats to pivot to the left after Trump’s 2016 victory no longer exist. Back then, Trump’s unexpected win and Bernie Sanders’ strong poll numbers created doubt about conventional political wisdom. Today, the political landscape has stabilized, and the party has reverted to more traditional strategies.
Second, progressives’ argument that bold progressive policies can mobilize young and nonwhite voters—making moderation unnecessary—has lost credibility. Polling over the past eight years has shown that these demographic groups are not as reliably Democratic as previously believed.
Lastly, should Trump secure a second term, his administration would likely extend his 2017 tax cuts and introduce new corporate tax breaks, driving up the federal deficit. This would make moderate Democrats wary of proposing ambitious new social programs the next time they’re in power.
The Future of the Democratic Party
If Harris loses, it’s unlikely that Democrats will re-embrace the across-the-board centrism of Bill Clinton’s second term. The party may continue to advocate for progressive stances on issues that have little political cost. However, losing to Trump twice won’t lead Democrats to conclude that they were not left-leaning enough on immigration, criminal justice, or fiscal policy.
In many ways, the situation today is different from 2017. After Hillary Clinton’s loss, Democrats moved left, driven by Bernie Sanders’ influence and Trump’s perceived extremism. But if Harris loses, none of those factors would be present. Sanders’ influence has waned, and Trump’s re-election would further validate his appeal to swing voters, making it less likely for the Democrats to take a more progressive stance.
Mobilization vs. Moderation
A Harris defeat would also weaken progressives’ long-standing argument that Democrats can mobilize low-turnout groups, like young and nonwhite voters, through bold progressive policies instead of moderating their positions to attract swing voters. Over recent years, young and nonwhite voters have become less reliably Democratic. More importantly, polling shows that low-propensity voters in these groups are not especially left-wing, which undermines the progressive mobilization argument.
Given these trends, it’s more likely that Democrats will continue their recent trend of moderation if Harris loses. The idea that moving left will inspire a surge of new voters has become harder to believe, making the case for moderation—at least on some issues—more compelling.
Fiscal Constraints Under Trump
The fiscal environment under a second Trump term would also play a role. If Trump wins, he will likely push for the extension of his 2017 tax cuts and introduce new corporate tax breaks. These moves could add trillions to the federal deficit, creating a challenging fiscal landscape for Democrats. In such a scenario, moderate Democrats would be even less likely to push for ambitious social spending the next time they’re in power.
Ultimately, a second Trump victory would not only mean a more conservative federal government but also, in all likelihood, a more moderate Democratic Party. For those hoping for a return to the ambitious progressive agenda of the Biden administration’s early years, a Harris loss would be a significant setback.