While most discussions about immigration in the United States revolve around the southern border, a surprising area of focus is emerging: the US-Canada border. As Donald Trump eyes a return to the presidency, his immigration crackdown may extend northward, potentially reshaping US-Canada relations and straining Canada’s domestic policies.
A New Front in Trump’s Immigration Agenda
The northern border, long overshadowed by its southern counterpart, is drawing increased scrutiny. Trump’s recently appointed “border czar,” Tom Homan, has highlighted the US-Canada border as a critical national security concern. He has advocated for enhanced enforcement, citing rising migration numbers and increased encounters with individuals on the US terror watchlist.
In fiscal year 2024 alone, nearly 199,000 migrant encounters were reported along the northern border—an almost twofold increase from 2022. Homan’s proposed measures include deploying more immigration agents, negotiating stricter enforcement measures with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and even adapting Trump’s controversial “Remain in Mexico” policy for the northern border.
Canada Prepares for a Potential Immigration Surge
Canada, meanwhile, is bracing for another wave of immigrants should Trump implement mass deportations or end protections for programs like Temporary Protected Status (TPS). During Trump’s first term, thousands of migrants, many fleeing TPS rollbacks, crossed into Canada to seek asylum. This trend peaked in 2018, with Haitian asylum seekers being among the most prominent groups.
With the possibility of another Trump presidency, Canadian officials are taking proactive measures. According to reports, Canada is bolstering border patrols, purchasing new equipment, and preparing emergency facilities near key crossings like the New York-Quebec border. These preparations aim to prevent tragedies like the 2022 incident in which a family froze to death on the Canadian side while attempting to cross into the US.
A Strain on Canada’s Immigration Policies
The potential influx of migrants from the US could further complicate Canada’s immigration stance. Prime Minister Trudeau’s earlier welcoming tone has shifted in response to growing domestic opposition to immigration. While his 2017 tweet offered a warm embrace to asylum seekers, his recent remarks acknowledge a need for stricter controls.
Canada’s enforcement of the “Safe Third Country” agreement with the US underscores this shift. Under the agreement, migrants who pass through the US before arriving in Canada can be deported back to the US to apply for asylum there. Homan has suggested that these migrants could be detained in the US while awaiting court proceedings, a significant departure from current policies where most are released pending their hearings.
The Broader Implications for US-Canada Relations
The looming policy shifts could strain the historically amicable relationship between the two countries. Canada’s reestablished Cabinet committee on US relations reflects its growing concern over Trump’s immigration agenda. For Trudeau, managing these challenges will require balancing US demands with the concerns of a Canadian public increasingly wary of large-scale immigration.
For Trump, extending his immigration policies to the northern border aligns with his broader “America First” agenda. Homan’s focus on national security and migration control suggests that the US-Canada border could become as politically charged as the southern border in a second Trump administration.
Looking Ahead
The northern border’s transformation into a flashpoint reflects broader global trends in immigration. As economic, political, and environmental crises drive migration worldwide, countries like the US and Canada face the challenge of balancing humanitarian commitments with domestic pressures.
Trump’s potential policies—and Canada’s response—could redefine the dynamics of migration in North America. Whether this leads to stronger bilateral cooperation or increased tensions remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the northern border is poised to become a critical focal point in the immigration debate.