The population of the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale has shown a slight increase in 2024, offering a glimmer of hope to marine biologists. However, with the upcoming winter migration and ongoing threats, experts are cautious, fearing this positive development may be temporary.
A Roller Coaster Year for Right Whale Conservation
This year has been filled with both triumphs and tragedies in the ongoing efforts to save the North Atlantic right whale. In the 2023-2024 calving season, 20 new calves were born—a notable improvement over the 12 calves born the previous year. Yet, the population still faces significant challenges, including entanglements in fishing gear and vessel strikes, which remain the leading causes of injury and death for the species.
Sadly, four of the calves born last winter are presumed dead, along with one confirmed calf death and the loss of four adult whales. Additionally, more than half a dozen whales were found entangled in fishing gear, raising alarms among conservationists.
A Fragile Increase in Population
On Tuesday, the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium released a population estimate of 372 individuals for 2023, marking a slight increase from last year's estimate of 360 whales. While any increase is seen as a positive sign, experts like Heather Pettis, chair of the consortium and a research scientist at the New England Aquarium’s Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life, urge caution. "I feel like people need to hear some good news about right whales," Pettis said, noting that this increase, though modest, is a step in the right direction after nearly a decade of steep population decline.
The population had reached a peak of 481 whales in 2011, but by 2020, estimates showed fewer than 350 remaining. While the recent halt in the population decline is encouraging, biologists warn that the species is far from recovery.
The Ongoing Threats to Right Whales
Right whales face two primary threats: vessel strikes and entanglements in fishing gear. These hazards have contributed to the species’ critical status, making recovery slow and difficult.
In response, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has proposed new vessel speed regulations to protect right whales. These include expanding the size and duration of speed-restricted zones and extending them to smaller vessels. However, the proposal has met resistance from commercial and recreational boating sectors, leading to delays in its implementation.
In addition to entanglements, climate change is altering the migratory patterns of right whales. This summer, large groups of right whales were spotted in unexpected areas, including off the coast of New York and Virginia, raising concerns about their proximity to shipping lanes and increasing the risk of vessel strikes.
Climate Change and Shifting Migration Patterns
The unexpected sightings of right whales in unusual locations this year, such as the continental shelf east of New York and the Bay of Fundy, underscore the shifting patterns influenced by climate change. These shifts make conservation efforts even more challenging, as whales are turning up in areas that were previously less frequented.
"We need to continue to push to save this species," said Kathleen Collins, senior marine campaign manager at IFAW (International Fund for Animal Welfare). Collins emphasized the need to reduce threats as whales adapt to changes in prey distribution caused by warming ocean temperatures.
The Future of Right Whale Conservation
While the increase in right whale numbers is a reason for cautious optimism, it’s far from signaling a full recovery. Biologists estimate that to reach a sustainable population, the species would need to see 40 new calves each year, combined with a significant reduction in human-caused deaths.
For now, the conservation community continues to await the final ruling on NOAA’s proposed vessel speed restrictions. Pettis, along with other whale advocates, believes these measures could make a crucial difference in reducing right whale mortalities. “Certainly, the measures that were proposed in that rule, we think will make a difference, so we’ll have to wait and see what the final rule says,” Pettis added.
As the winter calving season approaches, all eyes remain on the North Atlantic right whale population. While this year’s slight increase offers hope, the future of one of the world’s most endangered whale species remains uncertain, with many challenges still ahead.