In a major escalation of its ongoing conflict with Hezbollah, Israel has initiated a military invasion of Lebanon, branding it as “limited” in scope. This comes after days of intense bombing campaigns near Beirut and the Lebanese-Israeli border, pushing the already tense situation closer to full-scale war.
A Brief Overview of the Invasion
Israeli forces have deployed an army division of around 10,000 troops to the Lebanese border, urging civilians in several villages to flee northward. This invasion marks a significant new phase in the long-standing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group and political force that has waged war against Israel for decades. In the latest developments, Israeli forces assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s elusive leader, in a bombing in Beirut, following a series of attacks on Hezbollah communication networks across Lebanon.
The Human Cost: Casualties and Displacement
The toll of this latest conflict has been staggering. Over 1,000 Lebanese have been killed and 6,000 wounded in recent weeks, with about a million civilians displaced due to the fighting, according to Lebanese government sources. On the Israeli side, Hezbollah’s missile attacks have left eight people wounded in the past week alone. While the exact number of displaced Israelis remains unclear, the northern regions near the border have been heavily impacted.
How Did We Get Here?
The roots of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel trace back to 1982 when Hezbollah was formed in response to Israel’s invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon. While a UN-brokered ceasefire in 2006 brought temporary respite, clashes have persisted, intensifying dramatically after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. Hezbollah has launched missile strikes on Israel in solidarity with Gaza, vowing not to cease its attacks until Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza. In response, Israel has escalated its military operations, signaling no willingness to negotiate or halt its actions.
Hezbollah’s Strength and Israel’s Strategy
Despite Hezbollah’s historical resilience and significant military capabilities—including an estimated arsenal of 120,000 missiles—Israel’s recent attacks have raised doubts about the group’s ability to effectively retaliate. Israeli forces have disrupted Hezbollah’s communications and killed key leaders, including Nasrallah, raising questions about the group’s future. Yet, experts warn that Hezbollah’s capacity to wage war is far from crippled.
Hezbollah continues to demonstrate advanced military tactics, using drones, missiles, and sophisticated intelligence-gathering methods. While Israel claims to have neutralized some of Hezbollah’s missile capabilities, the group remains a formidable threat.
Iran’s Involvement: A Proxy War Unfolding
Iran, Hezbollah’s primary backer, has responded to Israel’s escalations with a ballistic missile strike, though it has suggested that further attacks may not be imminent unless provoked. While Iran has historically used proxy groups like Hezbollah to challenge Israel, it appears reluctant to engage directly in an extended conflict.
Is a Full-Scale Ground War Imminent?
While Israel’s current invasion of Lebanon is described as “limited,” concerns remain that it could expand into a full-scale war, much like the situation in Gaza. Lebanese resistance, both from Hezbollah and civilian populations, could prolong the conflict and further destabilize the region. Although the Lebanese government has called for peace, its ability to enforce a ceasefire or curtail Hezbollah’s operations is limited.
What’s Next for Israel, Lebanon, and the Region?
As Israel shows no signs of slowing its military campaign, Hezbollah’s options for retaliation appear limited, and diplomatic efforts from key international players, including the United States, have so far failed to deescalate the situation. The region faces the very real possibility of further violence, increased civilian casualties, and deeper political instability.While a ceasefire could temporarily alleviate the crisis, the deep-rooted tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and their respective allies make lasting peace an elusive goal. With no clear end in sight, the conflict risks spreading beyond Lebanon, drawing in other regional powers and escalating tensions further.